When it comes to trading stocks, especially a high-profile stock like Tesla, understanding the price action and the underlying market dynamics is crucial. In this detailed analysis, we’ll explore Tesla’s current price chart, key technical levels, and options data that can help traders and investors anticipate the stock’s next moves. This post is inspired by an insightful breakdown from RawStocks, who expertly combines technical analysis with options flow data to reveal Tesla’s potential price targets for the week.
Introduction: Why Tesla’s Chart and Options Data Matter
Tesla (TSLA) is one of the most actively traded stocks in the market, attracting attention from retail traders, institutional investors, and options traders alike. The stock’s volatility and momentum often create opportunities—but also risks—that require a solid game plan. By analyzing Tesla’s price chart alongside options data such as gamma and delta positioning, we can gain a clearer picture of where the stock might head next.
This analysis focuses on multiple timeframes—from the daily chart down to the 15-minute chart—and integrates options insights from Gamma Edge, a leading provider of options flow data. The goal is to outline key support and resistance levels, identify potential price targets, and understand how market makers’ hedging activities might influence Tesla’s price action.
Daily Chart Analysis: Fair Value Gaps and Key Resistance Zones
Starting with the daily chart, a significant feature to note is the presence of a large fair value gap. This gap represents an imbalance where price moved rapidly, leaving behind an area with little trading volume. Currently, Tesla’s price is pushing up toward the top of this gap.
If Tesla manages to close this fair value gap, there remains another volume imbalance between two daily candles that traders should watch. Closing these gaps often acts as a magnet for price, so these zones can serve as intermediate targets.
Another critical level on the daily timeframe is a breaker block around the $340 mark. This zone may act as resistance, causing price rejection if Tesla attempts to push higher. Since the candles leading up to this area are mostly bearish, there are no strong bullish order blocks to support a breakout easily.
In summary, the daily chart suggests that Tesla could face some resistance near $340, but if it overcomes this, it might continue upward to fill the remaining volume imbalances.
Four-Hour Chart: Fair Value Gaps and Support Levels
Dropping down to the four-hour chart provides a clearer look at intermediate-term price action. Recently, Tesla inverted a four-hour fair value gap, which means the price moved back through an area that was previously skipped, filling that gap.
Importantly, there is now a bullish fair value gap on this timeframe that could act as support if price retraces. Traders focusing on swing trades should watch this level as a potential bounce zone. If Tesla faces rejection near resistance, it’s likely to pull back and test this support before making another attempt higher.
One-Hour Chart: Liquidity Levels and Short-Term Targets
The one-hour chart introduces the concept of liquidity levels, which are crucial for understanding where stop orders, pending orders, or option strikes cluster. These liquidity levels often guide price moves as traders chase stops or market makers hedge their positions.
Key liquidity levels to watch on the one-hour chart include:
- $363 to $367: A higher liquidity zone that could act as an extended target if Tesla pushes upward strongly.
- $355: A nearer liquidity level that might cause resistance before the stock reaches the higher zone.
- $342: This is particularly important because it aligns with the daily fair value gap top, marking a significant resistance level.
Price action near these liquidity levels will determine whether Tesla continues its upward momentum or faces a pullback. Traders should monitor these zones to adjust their entries and exits accordingly.
Downside Targets and Bull Trigger on the One-Hour Chart
On the flip side, Tesla is currently trading above a key technical indicator called the bull trigger. This signal indicates bullish momentum. However, if price starts to break below this trigger, it opens the door to downside targets at:
- Target 2: Around $335
- Target 3: Near $349
- Below $309: A significant breakdown level that could lead to further losses down to $281 and $273, which are sell-side liquidity zones from past sharp drops.
For now, staying above the bull trigger is essential for maintaining the bullish bias.
Fifteen-Minute Chart: Short-Term Structure and Trade Opportunities
The 15-minute chart delivers a granular view of Tesla’s price moves. Recently, Tesla broke above the bull trigger with a strong move from approximately $321.85 to $325. This run presented clear trade opportunities for active traders.
Key support levels on this chart include:
- Support around $322 and $324.50, which should hold if the bullish trend continues.
- Resistance near $334.90, which could limit upside before a potential pullback.
- Support near $309, where an order block coincides with a liquidity low, offering a strong floor for price.
If Tesla falls below the $309 level on this timeframe, it may trigger a move toward lower targets like $302.61, with further downside possible depending on market reaction to upcoming data releases.
Options Data Insights: Gamma and Delta Positioning
Understanding Tesla’s options market provides another layer of insight into potential price movements. Gamma Edge data reveals that this week, Tesla is call dominated, meaning more call options are active than puts, which generally supports bullish price action.
However, Tesla is currently at a gamma resistance level near $325. Gamma levels indicate where options dealers must hedge their positions, often causing price to gravitate toward these points.
Significant gamma levels to watch are:
- $325: Current target level with a gamma void where dealers tend to reduce positions.
- $330: Another gamma void, meaning less dealer hedging and potential for price to roll over unless new contracts are purchased.
- $335: A larger gamma level that aligns with the technical target 2 on the charts.
- $350: A significant gamma level just below the technical target 3, signaling a potential ceiling if the stock pushes higher.
Dealers’ hedging activity around these gamma levels can cause price to stall or reverse, especially if there is a lack of new option contracts to sustain momentum. This dynamic explains why Tesla has struggled to break through certain levels despite bullish pressure.
Delta Levels and Resistance
Delta data shows mostly positive delta pushing Tesla higher, but there is a negative delta level at $342.50. This level could act as resistance between target 1 and target 2, potentially causing short-term pullbacks.
In summary, options flow data complements the technical chart analysis, highlighting key zones where price may react due to dealers’ hedging and trader positioning.
Intraday Structure: Trendlines and VWAP
On the intraday five-minute chart, Tesla has recently consolidated above a broken trendline, which may limit the strength of any immediate breakout. A more significant trendline connecting recent lows suggests that if price drops sharply, it will likely test this support line.
The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is currently near $319. VWAP often acts as a magnet for price during the trading day. If Tesla falls below VWAP, it could trigger bearish momentum and a test of the bear trigger and lower downside targets.
Summary: What Traders Should Watch
Here’s a quick recap of the key points to keep in mind when trading Tesla stocks this week:
- Daily Chart: Watch the $340 breaker block and fair value gaps as resistance and potential reversal zones.
- Four-Hour Chart: Bullish fair value gap support offers a bounce opportunity on pullbacks.
- One-Hour Chart: Key liquidity levels at $342, $355, and $363–$367 provide targets and resistance.
- Fifteen-Minute Chart: Support near $309 and resistance near $335 are critical for short-term trades.
- Options Data: Gamma levels at $325, $330, $335, and $350 are crucial for understanding dealer hedging and price behavior.
- Intraday Structure: Trendlines and VWAP around $319 are important for intraday momentum shifts.
The next few days will be pivotal as new economic data and market reactions will influence whether Tesla breaks above its resistance or drops toward lower targets. Staying above the bull trigger and monitoring gamma levels will be essential for identifying high-probability setups.
Final Thoughts
Trading stocks like Tesla requires a combination of technical analysis and understanding of market microstructure, including options flow. By integrating chart patterns, fair value gaps, liquidity zones, and options gamma and delta data, traders can better anticipate price movements and manage risk.
For those interested in diving deeper into options data, platforms like Gamma Edge provide invaluable tools and analytics. Combining these insights with solid chart reading skills can elevate your trading strategy.
Remember, no single indicator or data point guarantees success, but a comprehensive approach like this can significantly improve your edge in the market.
Stay disciplined, watch your levels, and trade smart!