Tesla ($TSLA) continues to set the tone for options flow this month. With spot price perched at $329.60, we’re seeing a call-dominated gamma environment, and the potential for sharp directional moves is on the table. This isn’t just a trade plan—it’s a blueprint for understanding flow, positioning, and the mechanics that drive Tesla week after week.
Let’s break it down so you’re not just trading levels—you’re learning how the game is played.
🧠 Why This Week Matters for TSLA
The options board is stacked for the 07/25 expiry, with dealers pinned long gamma above and a liquidity pocket forming below. When gamma conditions are call-dominated, it means dealers are short calls, hedging by buying Tesla as price rises. That creates self-reinforcing upward momentum (aka gamma squeeze).
But beware: charm decay and vanna flows can flip this dynamic fast, especially as time value bleeds off into Thursday.
This is how we’re setting up:
| Level | Value |
|---|---|
| COTMC | 378.09 |
| COTMP | 322.99 |
| Zero GEX | 315.00 |
| +GEX | 350.00 |
| -GEX | 300.00 |
| POI | 300.00 |
| SMA50 | 323.94 |
| EMA21 | 316.87 |
🟢 Bullish Scenario
📍 Trigger: Break and hold above 330
🎯 Target 1: 335
🎯 Target 2: 342.50
Why it matters:
Above 330, the gamma landscape thins dramatically. This means less resistance from dealer hedging, allowing price to accelerate quickly into higher strikes. Positive charm (theta decay driving dealers to buy) and vanna flow (volatility crush fueling more dealer buying) create the perfect recipe for a squeeze into COTMC at 378 if momentum persists.
📈 Key learning: Watch for how Tesla behaves near +GEX levels (like 350). These are “sticky” zones where flows may stall.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
📍 Trigger: Break below 322.99 (COTMP)
🎯 Target 1: 317.50
🎯 Target 2: 315
Why it matters:
A move under 323 puts Tesla in a position where dealers flip from buyers to sellers. As charm unwinds and flow turns negative, a flush into ZeroGEX at 315 becomes highly probable. This is a demand zone where absorption may occur, but if broken, expect an air pocket toward -GEX at 300.
📉 Key learning: Notice how flows invert below ZeroGEX—this is where liquidity hunting begins.
⚡ What the Greeks Are Telling Us About Tesla
- Gamma: Call-dominated means upward moves are amplified.
- Delta: Dealer hedging flows are net-long above 330, net-short below 323.
- Vanna: Falling implied volatility would add upward delta pressure on calls.
- Charm: As options decay this week, dealers may be forced to buy back shares to hedge.
🎇 Bonus Edge: Kill Zones
Timing is everything in Tesla. Watch the New York AM Kill Zone (9:30–11:30 ET) for your best risk-to-reward entries. Liquidity and volume spike here, making it the ideal window to catch directional conviction.
Pro Tip: Avoid midday chop unless you’re scalping around VWAP.
🔥 Hard Truth: The Tesla Levels Are the Map—Flow Is the Fuel
Most retail traders blindly buy breakouts or sell supports. Professionals track dealer positioning and real-time liquidity. That’s the edge.
Don’t trade blind. Track the gamma shifts, watch the Greeks, and use tools that give you a window into dealer flows.
📊 Quick Snapshot
- 🟣 Gamma Condition: Call Dominated
- 📈 Expected Move: ±37pts (11.2%)
- 🧠 Bias Above 330: Bullish
- ⚠️ Bias Below 323: Bearish
🧠 Want to Level Up Your Tesla Trading?
We use Gamma Edge to map dealer flows and build high-probability setups like these every week. Get access to the same tools:
👉 Start With Gamma Edge Here
And if you’re still relying on lagging indicators like RSI and MACD… it’s time to step up. Institutions are trading flows. So should you.
📅 Ready for Monday?
Join our Discord for live trade ideas, market prep, and flow analysis:
👉 https://rebrand.ly/discord-x