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Rawstocks Desk Record

The edge is in the record.

Every closed Desk alert is kept here after the outcome is known. Winners stay. Losses stay. The point is not to manufacture a perfect-looking curve — it is to make the record inspectable.

Closed trades300complete record sample
Win rate84.7%profitable closed positions
Average win+38.93%option contract return
Average loss−54.09%option contract return
Expectancy / trade+24.67%mean % across all closed trades
Win / loss ratio0.72xaverage winner ÷ average loser

Cumulative contract return

Sequential closed trades

Performance diagnostics

Current sample
Wins254
Losses46
Best trade+519.00%
Worst trade−99.70%
Breakeven win rate58.1%
Current edge+24.67%
Trade ledger

Every closed call. In sequence.

This table is the underlying record behind the summary statistics above. Rows remain visible after losses and the feed continues to grow as new Desk trades close.

How to read this: every row is a closed position posted to the Rawstocks Discord in real time. P/L is the percentage return on the option contract itself. It should not be interpreted as a portfolio return.

Date Instrument Expiry Result P/L
09/14SPX 7635 CALL09-14WIN+14.60%
09/14SPY 761 CALL09-14WIN+7.20%
09/14SPY 763 PUT09-14WIN+63.20%
09/14SPY 763 PUT09-14WIN+24.20%
09/14SPY 763 PUT09-14WIN+21.80%
09/14SPY 763 PUT09-14WIN+3.80%
09/14SPY 763 PUT09-14WIN+16.90%
09/14COIN 190 CALL09-18WIN+14.10%
09/14COIN 190 CALL09-18WIN+11.70%
09/14SPY 758 CALL09-14WIN+49.60%
09/14SPY 760 CALL09-15WIN+6.40%
09/14SPY 760 PUT09-14WIN+100.00%
09/14SPY 760 PUT09-14WIN+120.00%
09/14SPY 760 PUT09-14WIN+41.20%
09/14SPY 760 CALL09-14WIN+0.00%
09/14SPY 760 CALL09-14WIN+41.20%
09/14SPY 760 CALL09-14WIN+29.40%
09/14SPY 760 CALL09-14WIN+21.20%
09/11SPY 767 PUT09-11WIN+19.20%
09/11SPY 766 CALL09-11WIN+0.00%
09/11SPY 765 PUT09-11WIN+33.30%
09/11SPY 765 PUT09-11WIN+33.30%
09/11SPY 765 PUT09-11WIN+27.50%
09/11SPY 770 CALL09-11LOSS−94.70%
09/11SPY 764 PUT09-11WIN+18.10%
09/11SPY 764 PUT09-11WIN+48.90%
09/11SPY 764 PUT09-11WIN+38.30%
09/10QQQ 710 PUT09-10LOSS−2.90%
09/10QQQ 709 CALL09-10WIN+9.00%
09/10SPY 756 PUT09-10WIN+10.30%
09/10SPY 756 PUT09-10WIN+75.90%
09/10SPY 756 PUT09-10WIN+41.40%
09/10QQQ 712 PUT09-10WIN+14.60%
09/10QQQ 712 PUT09-10WIN+17.60%
09/09QQQ 718 PUT09-09WIN+10.30%
09/09QQQ 718 PUT09-09WIN+19.90%
09/09QQQ 715 PUT09-09WIN+252.10%
09/09QQQ 715 PUT09-09WIN+191.70%
09/09QQQ 715 PUT09-09WIN+83.30%
09/09QQQ 715 PUT09-09WIN+50.00%
09/09QQQ 721 PUT09-09WIN+19.30%
09/09QQQ 721 PUT09-09WIN+11.30%
09/08QQQ 721 PUT09-08WIN+3.40%
09/08QQQ 728 CALL09-09WIN+13.30%
09/08TSLA 355 CALL09-11WIN+60.10%
09/04META 620 CALL09-11WIN+25.00%
09/04SPXW 7735 CALL09-04WIN+0.00%
09/04SPXW 7705 PUT09-04WIN+0.00%
09/04SPXW 7705 PUT09-04WIN+22.90%
09/04SPX 7730 CALL09-04WIN+14.10%
09/04SPXW 7705 PUT09-04WIN+20.00%
09/04LULU 102 PUT09-04WIN+35.30%
09/04IWM 293 PUT09-04LOSS−40.00%
09/04SPY 772 PUT09-04WIN+56.90%
09/04SPY 772 PUT09-04WIN+42.20%
09/04SPY 772 PUT09-04WIN+31.40%
09/04SHOP 143 PUT09-04LOSS−91.70%
09/04SPY 772 PUT09-04WIN+4.80%
09/03XOM 163 PUT09-04WIN+76.90%
09/03SPXW 7735 PUT09-04LOSS−96.30%
09/03XOM 163 PUT09-04WIN+15.40%
09/03QQQ 716 CALL09-03LOSS−5.90%
09/03QQQ 714 CALL09-03WIN+15.00%
09/03SPXW 7710 PUT09-03WIN+37.00%
09/03TSLA 385 CALL09-11WIN+8.90%
09/03QQQ 714 CALL09-03WIN+8.50%
09/03QQQ 714 PUT09-03LOSS−25.90%
09/03SHOP 143 PUT09-04WIN+66.70%
09/03SHOP 143 PUT09-04WIN+45.80%
09/03XOM 163 PUT09-03WIN+0.00%
09/03SNOW 385 CALL09-04WIN+18.30%
09/02QQQ 708 PUT09-04WIN+5.30%
09/02QQQ 709 PUT09-02WIN+35.30%
09/02SPXW 7640 PUT09-02WIN+76.00%
09/02SPXW 7640 PUT09-02WIN+28.00%
09/02SPXW 7640 CALL09-02WIN+0.00%
09/02QQQ 708 PUT09-04WIN+12.10%
09/02QQQ 709 PUT09-02WIN+10.90%
09/02SPY 770 CALL09-04WIN+44.20%
09/02SPY 770 CALL09-04WIN+34.60%
09/02SPY 770 CALL09-04WIN+20.20%
09/02SPY 765 CALL09-02WIN+131.30%
09/02SPY 765 CALL09-02WIN+134.40%
09/02SPY 765 CALL09-02WIN+106.30%
09/02SPY 765 CALL09-02WIN+93.80%
09/01QQQ 712 CALL09-01LOSS−94.80%
09/01SPY 762 PUT09-01WIN+411.90%
09/01SPY 762 PUT09-01WIN+242.90%
09/01SPY 762 PUT09-01WIN+161.90%
09/01SPY 762 PUT09-01WIN+140.50%
09/01QQQ 710 PUT09-01WIN+38.70%
08/31SPX 7670 PUT08-31LOSS−92.10%
08/31SPX 7670 PUT08-31WIN+9.90%
08/31COIN 185 CALL09-04WIN+15.90%
08/31SPX 7670 PUT08-31WIN+10.90%
08/31COIN 185 CALL09-04WIN+5.20%
08/31SPX 7670 PUT08-31WIN+18.10%
08/31SPX 7660 PUT08-31LOSS−39.20%
08/31SPX 7660 PUT08-31LOSS−41.70%
08/31SPX 7670 PUT08-31WIN+25.40%
254 wins · 46 losses across 300 closed trades Every row timestamped in Discord. Join and scroll back.
Interpretation

Win rate alone is not enough.

A strong win rate can still produce poor economics if the losses are too large. The useful question is whether the current hit rate is high enough relative to the average win and average loss.

Average outcome matters

Across the current record the average winner is approximately +38.93% and the average loser is approximately −54.09%. Based on that payoff relationship, the estimated breakeven win rate is approximately 58.1%.

Sample size matters

The record currently contains 300 closed positions. A small sample can produce misleadingly strong or weak statistics, so these figures should be interpreted in the context of the number of completed trades.

Your execution will not match the record exactly

  • Fills: options spreads move quickly, and a worse fill can materially change the percentage result.
  • Sizing: contract-return percentage is not the same thing as account return. Position size determines the actual portfolio impact.
  • Timing: entering even minutes after an alert can create a materially different outcome on fast-moving contracts.
  • Past performance: this record describes what happened. It does not guarantee what happens next.
Risk disclosure

Trading options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Options can expire worthless. It is possible to lose the entire amount paid for a position in a single session.

Rawstocks LLC is a trading education and analysis community. We are not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer, and nothing published here constitutes personalized investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Read the full disclosure.