The record

A 90% win rate is the kind of figure this industry prints on a banner. We would rather explain what actually sits underneath it, because the win rate on its own is the least useful number on this page.

The wins and the losses are not the same size

Across this sample the average win is roughly +49% and the average loss is roughly −98%. Both losing trades — SPY 738 PUT and TSLA 360 CALL — went close to a total loss of premium. That is normal for short-dated options that move against you, and it is the single most important thing to understand before following any alert on this page.

At that ratio, roughly two winners are needed to cover one loser. The strategy needs a win rate near 67% just to break even. The desk ran well above that over these three days, which is why the period was profitable — but the margin depends on maintaining a high hit rate, not on the size of the winners.

Twenty-one trades is a small sample

Three days is not enough to judge any strategy. One bad session with three near-total losses would move these numbers substantially. Treat this as a starting record that grows daily, not as a performance claim.

Your results will differ from ours

• Fills. An alert posts at a price the desk got. Spreads move in seconds on short-dated contracts, and a worse fill changes the arithmetic materially.
• Sizing is yours. Given a −98% average loss, position size determines everything. Run your numbers in the position size calculator before following anything, and read why it matters.
• Timing. Entering minutes after an alert on a fast-moving contract can invert the outcome entirely.
• Past results do not predict future results. A legal statement, and a true one.