Inputs
Enter your trade statistics
Break-even Win Rate = Average Loss ÷ (Average Win + Average Loss)
Output
Expected value
Enter your statistics and calculate.
Expectancy measures the average result implied by your inputs across a large sample. It does not predict the outcome of the next trade.
What it means
Win rate is only half the equation.
A strategy can lose more often than it wins and still have positive expectancy when its average winner is sufficiently larger than its average loser. The reverse is also true: a high win rate can still lose money when the losing trades are too large.
For example, a 40% win rate with a $150 average winner and a $75 average loser produces $15.00 of positive expectancy per trade before any costs not already included in those averages.
The projected sample simply multiplies expectancy by the number of trades entered. Actual results can vary substantially because trade outcomes are not evenly distributed.
Use better inputs
Use realized trade data when possible.
For the most useful result, calculate average winners and losers after commissions and fees. Use a meaningful sample of completed trades rather than a handful of recent outcomes.
Expectancy describes the arithmetic of a historical or assumed distribution. It does not account for changing market regimes, execution quality, sequence risk, slippage, leverage, drawdown limits or strategy degradation unless those effects are already reflected in your inputs.
Risk disclosure
Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. Calculator results are mathematical estimates based on the values you provide and are not forecasts or guarantees of future performance.
Rawstocks LLC is a trading education and analysis community. We are not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer, and nothing published here constitutes personalized investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Read the full disclosure.